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Published: 06 November 2024
Implications of the 2024 USA Election
America has spoken.
The Trump agenda of slashing taxes for the wealthy in the hope of a trickle down to the rest of the economy; of blaming the woes of the country on immigrants and of taking the trade fight to the world through 'America First' tariffs has landed from the Sun Belt to the Rust Belt and across the Heartland.
The USA has now gone beyond the era of policy to a politics based on celebrity. Donald Trump will have the unquestioning support of the Senate and quite possibly the Holy Grail Trifecta if Republicans hold on to the House. This second Trump term will be Trumpism without guardrails. It will not be a great time in the USA for minorities or for women. Meanwhile in international relations, the America First agenda removes any US commitment to the environment, makes international trade a war, is likely to remove US support for Ukraine, and puts NATO under the kind of strain it has never faced before.
The USA has now gone beyond the era of policy to a politics based on celebrity. Donald Trump will have the unquestioning support of the Senate and quite possibly the Holy Grail Trifecta if Republicans hold on to the House. This second Trump term will be Trumpism without guardrails. It will not be a great time in the USA for minorities or for women. Meanwhile in international relations, the America First agenda removes any US commitment to the environment, makes international trade a war, is likely to remove US support for Ukraine, and puts NATO under the kind of strain it has never faced before.
If the UK wishes to be economically relevant it may have to choose to align closer with Europe or submit fully to the America First agenda. And future European security may depend on a much closer, and better funded, alliance of the western European states.
Politically, Trump's win will embolden populists across Europe. Last night was a bad night for Scholz, Macron and even Keir Starmer.
The next four years, with a president who is only predictable in his unpredictability, could change America, and indeed the world, forever - and from a liberal European perspective, for the worse.
The next four years, with a president who is only predictable in his unpredictability, could change America, and indeed the world, forever - and from a liberal European perspective, for the worse.
Dr Mark Shanahan
CBE's Government & Governance Expert
