On the Cusp of Trump 2.0: What will the US election mean for Europe?

A victory for Democrat candidate Kamala Harris would be momentous – the first woman US president, and a woman of colour to boot. But this race remains extremely tight and while it might defy logic to the rest of the world, the latest polls are just too close to be able to call a clear winner in what has been an angry and fractious contest. The incumbent president has fallen by the wayside. His successor offers ‘a new way forward’ and the 45^th president has run a campaign based on retribution and revenge. 

As the sun rises on Europe next Wednesday, the most consequential US presidential election perhaps ever will be over. If Harris triumphs, Europe will be looking at continuity in its relationship with the United States. But if Trump wins, and most especially if he takes Congress with him, America First will ring out loudly from Mar a Lago to Trump Tower and back down to Washington DC – and the EU and surrounding nations need to be ready for massive change in trade, in security and, potentially, in the world order. Of course, the US election is about much more than the presidency. All 435 seats in the House of representatives and a third of Senate are up for grabs and Republicans believe they have a strong chance of a straight ticket win, taking in the White House and both legislative bodies. If the Democrats hold the Senate and/or flip the House, they will have some check on an unshackled presidency. But if Trumps holds all those levers of power, all the shackles are off. 

Europe has been of little consequence as this election battle has played out. Harris has offered up a fairly thin foreign affairs team and agenda, focusing on human rights and maintaining the rules-based system of international law. She’s walked the tightrope of defending the Biden administration’s plans while making her own mark – but has chosen to do so primarily on domestic issues rather than in the international relations arena. 

A Harris presidency would mean little change in terms of economic or security strategy in relation to Western Europe, and would probably bring a sigh of relief from EU and UK leaders in particular. In terms of trade, she shows no signs of agreeing with Trump’s ‘America First’ attitude and her policies will be built out from the continuity of existing rules and agreements. Where Europe may be able to push Harris a little more is on reducing or eliminating some of the hang-over tariffs that Biden has been slow to dispense with. While it’s likely Harris will maintain the current asymmetry with the US’s key partners, there are hints that she may return to President Obama’s lean towards the Pacific rim rather than prioritising Transatlantic strategies. 

If she becomes the first female US president, we can also expect Kamala Harris to maintain US support for President Zelensky in Kiev, and potentially to dial down her support for Israeli premier Benjamin Netenyahu. It is likely she will welcome Ukraine’s eventual accession to the EU, but recent remarks suggest she’s more reticent about the former Soviet republic joining NATO. Politically, a Harris victory would be a setback for European populists who have already seen the first signs of the withering of populism from Brazil to India in 2024.

In terms of Europe specifically, expect a Harris Administration to maintain the pressure on NATO’s European members to up their contributions to the alliance to ensure NATO, in turn can keep up the pressure on Putin.

The ripples of an autocratic turn

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, the world will see his wrath. Not so much - China aside - across the range of autocrats and wannabes who gathered in Kazan last week for the latest BRICs summit, but more so the western European allies who will feel the effect of America’s autocratic turn across immigration, the economy and security. Trump’s deportation plan is sheer racism, casting all the ills of the United States onto its non-white immigrants, both legal and illegal. While Europe might feel little direct effect on millions of people being cast out of the US, what appetite will the likes of Mexico or Brazil have for expanding trade with the UK or EU say, if they’re dealing with a new refugee crisis? And one only has to look at Project 2025 for an indication of Trump’s likely attitude towards international aid.  Essentially, it's America First and any development aid for the rest of the world will be based only on delivering on very narrow criteria for US supremacy. Trump is fundamentally a zero-sum player: he has to win, and everyone outside his circle loses. 

That will definitely come into play in his trade wars with China. All Chinese imports will have a 60% tariff on them – one assumes that will apply to products from elsewhere featuring Chinese components. Other exporters, not least European ones won’t fare much better, with 10-20% tariffs bulking the prices of all imports to US markets. 

While trade will be a war across a whole Trump presidency, it’s real war, and the threat of escalation, that should have European worried. Harris and Trump are pretty much aligned on European nations raising their contributions to NATO, but the real worry is Trump withdrawing from the alliance altogether. It’s no coincidence that the UK has just announced the landmark Trinity House UK-Germany Defence Agreement, and it’s clear that across Europe, defence organisations are gaming scenarios assuming a US withdrawal from NATO. Such sentiment only strengthens Putin – a leader Trump is convinced he can do business with. Such hubris terrifies Ukraine, and fear levels across the Baltic States and into the likes of Moldova have not ratcheted this high since before the fall of the Soviet Empire. Meanwhile a Trump victory will undoubtedly escalate the Middle East war as Netanyahu’s Israel will have any remaining US shackles removed. 

In terms of political motivation, a Trump win will give a massive boost to the likes of Orbán, Le Pen and Meloni. From the AFD in Germany to Reform in the UK via the FPÖ in Germany, the populist right will be emboldened in what’s already a fragile time for Europe’s liberal order. 

In 2016, we in western Europe laughed at Trump’s outlandish lies and simplistic plans. He won the White House. While he lost in 2020, it’s clear America remains hyper-polarised in its views and with a ludicrously short political memory. This election has been fought on insular domestic grounds – the rest of the world has hardly mattered when the domestic economy, reproductive rights and democracy itself have dominated the daily media agenda. A Harris win means continuity in international relations. Trump retaking the White House means anything but.

Dr Mark Shanahan is an Associate Professor of political Engagement at the University of Surrey and is a subject expert in the Centre for Britain and Europe on Government and Governance.