Professor Matthew Leach

Domestic heating systems across northern Europe are responsible for a substantial fraction of their countries' carbon footprints. In the UK, the vast majority of home space heating is via natural gas boilers with 'wet' hydronic radiator systems. Most of those use TRVs (thermostatic radiator valves) for micro-zoning, to avoid overheating, improve comfort and save energy. To meet Net Zero targets, 20 million such UK gas systems may be retrofitted with heat pumps. Heat pump system designers and installers are cautious about retaining TRVs in such systems in part because of worries that TRV temperature setbacks that lower heat demand may raise heat pump electricity demand in a "bad setback effect", thus wasting energy. This paper presents a new view of heat pump control and provides the first exploration of this issue through the development of a simple physics-based model. The model tests an installation industry claim about the negative effect of TRVs, and finds that though real it should not apply to typical UK retrofits with weather compensation. The energy efficiency benefits of TRVs for older and partly occupied homes, and to keep bedrooms cooler, remain valid. Comfort-seeking householders and installers should know that setting 'stiff' temperature regulation may invoke the bad setback effect and cost dearly in energy and carbon footprint.

Rapid growth in the global population requires expansion of building stock, which in turn calls for increased energy demand. This demand varies in time and also between different buildings, yet, conventional methods are only able to provide mean energy levels per zone and are unable to capture this inhomogeneity, which is important to conserve energy. An additional challenge is that some of the attempts to conserve energy, through for example lowering of ventilation rates, have been shown to exacerbate another problem, which is unacceptable indoor air quality (IAQ). The rise of sensing technology over the past decade has shown potential to address both these issues simultaneously by providing high–resolution tempo–spatial data to systematically analyse the energy demand and its consumption as well as the impacts of measures taken to control energy consumption on IAQ. However, challenges remain in the development of affordable services for data analysis, deployment of large–scale real–time sensing network and responding through Building Energy Management Systems. This article presents the fundamental drivers behind the rise of sensing technology for the management of energy and IAQ in urban built environments, highlights major challenges for their large–scale deployment and identifies the research gaps that should be closed by future investigations.

For sustainability's sake, the establishment of bioenergy production can no longer overlook the interactions between ecosystem and technological processes, to ensure the preservation of ecosystem functions that provide energy and other goods and services to the human being. In this paper, a bioenergy production system based on heathland biomass is investigated with the aim to explore how a system dynamics approach can help to analyze the impact of bioenergy production on ecosystem dynamics and services and vice versa. The effect of biomass harvesting on the heathland dynamics, ecosystem services such as biomass production and carbon capture, and its capacity to balance nitrogen inputs from atmospheric deposition and nitrogen recycling were analyzed. Harvesting was found to be beneficial for the maintenance of the heathland ecosystem if the biomass cut fraction is higher than 0.2 but lower than 0.6, but this will depend on the specific conditions of nitrogen deposition and nitrogen recycling. With 95% recycling of nitrogen, biomass production was increased by up to 25% for a cut fraction of 0.4, but at the expense of higher nitrogen accumulation and the system being less capable to withstand high atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

Energy supply for clean cooking is a priority for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG, i.e., propane or butane or a mixture of both) is an economically efficient, cooking energy solution used by over 2.5 billion people worldwide and scaled up in numerous low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Investigation of the technical, policy, economic and physical requirements of producing LPG from renewable feedstocks (bioLPG) finds feasibility at scale in Africa. Biogas and syngas from the circular economic repurposing of municipal solid waste and agricultural waste can be used in two groundbreaking new chemical processes (Cool LPG or Integrated Hydropyrolysis and Hydroconversion (IH2)) to selectively produce bioLPG. Evidence about the nature and scale potential of bioLPG presented in this study justifies further investment in the development of bioLPG as a fuel that can make a major contribution toward enabling an SSA green economy and universal energy access. Techno-economic assessments of five potential projects from Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda illustrate what might be possible. BioLPG technology is in the early days of development, so normal technology piloting and de-risking need to be undertaken. However, fully developed bioLPG production could greatly reduce the public and private sector investment required to significantly increase SSA clean cooking capacity.

This article argues that industrial ecology has, to date, largely engaged with the ecological sciences at a superficial level, which has both attracted criticism of the field and limited its practical application for sustainable industrial development. On the basis of an analysis of the principle of succession, the role of waste, and the concept of diversity, the article highlights some of the key misconceptions that have resulted from the superficial engagement with the science of ecology. It is argued that industrial ecology should not be seen as a metaphor for industrial development; industrial ecology is the ecology of industry and should be studied as such. There are manifold general principles of ecology that underpin our understanding of the world; however, the physical manifestation and causal effects of these principles are particular to the system and its constituent elements under analysis. It is thus proposed that context-specific observation and analysis of industry are required before theoretical and practical advancement of the field can be achieved.

This article argues that industrial ecology has, to date, largely engaged with the ecological sciences at a superficial level, which has both attracted criticism of the field and limited its practical application for sustainable industrial development. On the basis of an analysis of the principle of succession, the role of waste, and the concept of diversity, the article highlights some of the key misconceptions that have resulted from the superficial engagement with the science of ecology. It is argued that industrial ecology should not be seen as a metaphor for industrial development; industrial ecology is the ecology of industry and should be studied as such. There are manifold general principles of ecology that underpin our understanding of the world; however, the physical manifestation and causal effects of these principles are particular to the system and its constituent elements under analysis. It is thus proposed that context-specific observation and analysis of industry are required before theoretical and practical advancement of the field can be achieved.

Geothermal resource assessment is crucial for the rural electrification of Nigeria. A comprehensive set of criteria was used to appraise promising geothermal sites in Nigeria. The evaluation of the sites was performed using the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method and taking into account evidence of a wide range of criteria from a set of geological, geophysical, well log, environmental, remote sensing, and geochemical datasets to appraise promising geothermal sites and to add to the current debate on the needed criteria for geothermal development. To gather relevant data, various sources such as bottom-hole temperature (BHT) data from different boreholes and oil and gas wells, aeromagnetic maps, reduced-to-the-pole, magnetic, heat flow, seismic, and geothermal gradient data from aerogravity maps, Bouguer anomaly maps, earthquake epicenter maps, satellite images, and geological maps were obtained from the literature. A case study of the thirty-six states of Nigeria, including the federal capital territory, Abuja (FCT), was conducted to illustrate how these criteria would reveal the technical aspect of the geothermal energy situation. A model was developed to show that the application of a wide range of criteria to the six datasets identified and analyzed in this study reveals that the datasets complement each other and should not be used independently. It can be found from the overall suitability map that more than 20% of the study area is suitable for geothermal energy development. It can also be observed from the map that some of the promising sites in Nigeria may include but are not limited to Bauchi, FCT, Taraba, Ebonyi, Adamawa, Oyo, and Nasarawa states in Nigeria. The opportunities for the further application of the approach are discussed, including the use of the model to help policymakers decide where to invest in the future.

Society currently relies heavily on centralized production and large scale distribution infrastructures to meet growing demands for goods and services, which causes socioeconomic and environmental issues, particularly unsustainable resource supply. Considering local production systems as a more sustainable alternative, this paper presents an insight-based approach to the integrated design of local systems providing food, energy, and water to meet local demands. The approach offers a new hierarchical and iterative decision and analysis procedure incorporating design principles and ability to examine design decisions, in both synthesis of individual yet interconnected subsystems and integrated design of resource reuse across the entire system. The approach was applied to a case study on design of food-energy-water system for a locale in the U.K.; resulting in a design which significantly reduced resource consumption compared to importing goods from centralized production. The design process produced insights into the impact of one decision on other parts of the problem, either within or across different subsystems. The result was also compared to the mathematical programming approach for whole system optimization from previous work. It was demonstrated that the new approach could produce a comparable design while offering more valuable insights for decision makers.

The UK whole-wheat bioethanol and straw and DDGS-based combined heat and power (CHP) generation systems were assessed for environmental sustainability using a range of impact categories or characterisations (IC): cumulative primary fossil energy (CPE), land use, life cycle global warming potential over 100 years (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP) and abiotic resources use (ARU). The European Union (EU) Renewable Energy Directive's target of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission saving of 60% in comparison to an equivalent fossil-based system by 2020 seems to be very challenging for stand-alone wheat bioethanol system. However, the whole-wheat integrated system, wherein the CHP from the excess straw grown in the same season and from the same land is utilised in the wheat bioethanol plant, can be demonstrated for potential sustainability improvement, achieving 85% emission reduction and 97% CPE saving compared to reference fossil systems. The net bioenergy from this system and from 172,370 ha of grade 3 land is 12.1 PJ y providing land to energy yield of 70 GJ ha y. The use of DDGS as an animal feed replacing soy meal incurs environmental emission credit, whilst its use in heat or CHP generation saves CPE. The hot spots in whole system identified under each impact category are as follows: bioethanol plant and wheat cultivation for CPE (50% and 48%), as well as for ARU (46% and 52%). EP and GWP are distributed among wheat cultivation (49% and 37%), CHP plant (26% and 30%) and bioethanol plant (25%, and 33%), respectively. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

An important development in recent years has been increased interest in retrofitting CO2 capture at existing power plants. In parallel, it has also been suggested that flexible operation of power plants with CO2 capture could be important in at least some jurisdictions. It is likely that retrofitted power plants could have significant ‘built-in’ flexibility, but this potential is often not considered in studies of the economic performance of power plants with CO2 capture. This paper makes a contribution to filling this gap by developing methods for first order screening analysis of flexible operation of power plants with CO2 capture and applying them to the case study example of an appropriately integrated retrofit of post-combustion capture at a coal-fired power plant. The quantitative analysis suggests that rich solvent storage could be an attractive option on a short-run basis for some fuel, CO2 and electricity price combinations. Results from first order analysis can then be used to determine which operating modes should (and shouldn’t) be included in further, more detailed design studies.

Around the world there is strong interest in the use of energy feedback via smart metering technology as an option for businesses to reduce their energy use and mitigate greenhouse gases (GHGs). In order to bring about such energy reductions in this way, the feedback provided needs to motivate changes in energy behaviours and practices within organisations. The chapter explores the impact of a real-life smart metering intervention and its impact on the emergence and diffusion of energy-related social norms and the link between these and energy use. The chapter begins by looking at early organisation and energy conservation studies (mainly feedback-based), before moving on to organisational and social norms studies, and concluding with those most relevant to the current chapter. We first briefly define what we mean by social norms. Cialdini et al. (1991) argue that social norms can be defined as either injunctive (characterised by perception of what most people approve or disapprove of) or descriptive (characterised by what most people do). According to this argument, injunctive norms incentivise action by promising social rewards and punishments (informal sanctions) for it (and therefore enjoin behaviour). According to Cialdini et al. (1991) these constitute the moral rules of a group. Descriptive norms on the other hand, inform behaviour, and incentivise action, by providing evidence of what are likely to be effective and adaptive steps to take based on what others do (Cialdini et al. 1991). The ‘focus theory’ of Cialdini et al. (1991) stipulates that this differentiation of social norms is critical to a full understanding of their influence on human behaviour.

Achieving universal access to clean cooking requires a significant mobilization of capital to close the current funding gap of around US$7 bn per year. The clean cooking landscape has changed considerably with substantial innovation in terms of technology, business models, and services. The transition towards higher-tier, modern energy cooking (MEC) solutions provides key opportunities for innovative financing models to scale MEC globally. Transitions from cooking with polluting fuels to MEC have significant positive impacts on the environment, gender equality, and health. Impact Finance to monetize these co-benefits for MEC solutions is widely seen as an outstanding opportunity to channel funding into MEC transitions. However, except for climate funding, opportunities to channel finance for wider impact SDG benefits arising from MEC have proved challenging to realize in practice. This article explores in detail two new approaches which are taking advantage of features of digital technology to overcome some of these obstacles. It adds to the recent debate around climate finance for clean cooking and presents key learning lessons from developing and piloting the 'Metered Methodology for Clean Cooking Devices' as the current most accurate approach to estimate carbon savings for MEC and the 'Clean Impact Bond (CIB)' which aims at monetizing health and gender-co-benefits. The paper demonstrates how robust methodologies can help to accelerate funding for MEC and calls for joint approaches to standardize and streamline climate and outcome finance approaches to enhance their impact by making them more accessible for a wider range of MEC technologies, geographies, and projects.

This paper explores the possible evolution of UK electricity demand as we move along three potential transition pathways to a low carbon economy in 2050. The shift away from fossil fuels through the electrification of demand is discussed, particularly through the uptake of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the domestic and passenger transport sectors. Developments in the way people and institutions may use energy along each of the pathways are also considered and provide a rationale for the quantification of future annual electricity demands in various broad sectors. The paper then presents detailed modelling of hourly balancing of these demands in the context of potential low carbon generation mixes associated with the three pathways. In all cases, hourly balancing is shown to be a significant challenge. To minimise the need for conventional generation to operate with very low capacity factors, a variety of demand side participation measures are modelled and shown to provide significant benefits. Lastly, projections of operational greenhouse gas emissions from the UK and the imports of fossil fuels to the UK for each of the three pathways are presented. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

Whilst the rapid spread of solar photovoltaics (PV) across Africa has already transformed millions of lives, it has yet to have an impact on the main energy need of poor households: cooking. In the context of falling global PV prices, recent advancements in battery technology and rising charcoal/fuelwood prices in severely deforested regions, the door is opening for a potentially transformative alternative - solar electric cooking (PV-eCook). While initial investigations focused on solar home systems sized for cooking (cooking device, battery storage, charge controller and PV array), it has since been shown that battery-supported electric cooking (eCook) can also strengthen national, mini, micro and nano grids. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based methodology, accounting for a wide variety of socio-cultural, political, technical and economic factors which are expected to affect the uptake and potential impact of eCook across a variety of African contexts. It shows the concept has considerable viability in many African countries, that there are significant sizeable markets (millions of potential users), and that within the next five years the anticipated costs of eCook are highly competitive against existing ‘commercialised polluting fuels’.

Addressing the intersection of two important emerging research areas, re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) and the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus, this work combines insights from engineering, business and policy perspectives and explores opportunities and challenges towards a more localised and sustainable food system. Analysis centred on two specific food products, namely bread and tomato paste reveals that the feasibility and potential of RDM vary with the type of food product and the supply chain (SC) components. Physically, energy efficiency, water consumption and reduction of waste and carbon footprint may be affected by scale and location of production activities and potentials of industrial symbiosis. From the business perspective, novel products, new markets and new business models are expected in order for food RDM to penetrate within the established food industry. Studies on policies, through the lens of public procurement, call for solid evidence of envisioned environmental, social and economic benefits of a more localised food system. An initial integrated framework is proposed for understanding and assessing food RDM and the FEW nexus

Anaerobic digestion (AD) can bring benefits in terms of effective management of organic waste, recovery of nutrients and energy recovery, and is consistent with circular economy principles. AD has been promoted and implemented worldwide, but at widely differing scales, influenced by the availability and location of feedstocks. In developing countries, feedstock arises from small- to medium-scale agriculture and agro-processing operations, as well as from household and municipal waste. Biogas produced from residues from agro-processing facilities may be used for on-site heat and power, but the lack of a gas and electricity grid infrastructure can limit opportunities to distribute gas or generated electricity to wider users. This paper presents the findings of the first study to consider novel technologies for small-scale and low-cost biogas clean-up into biomethane, and compression into small bottles, suitable as a clean cooking fuel. The paper reports on the initial evaluation of biomethane for cooking in Ghana and Uganda.

Geographic proximity is said to be a key characteristic of the resource reuse and recycling practice known as industrial symbiosis. To date, however, proximity of symbiont companies has remained an abstract characteristic. By conducting a statistical analysis of synergies facilitated by the United Kingdom's National Industrial Symbiosis Programme during their first five years of operation, this article attempts to quantify geographic proximity and in the process provide practitioners with an insight into the movement trends of different waste streams. Among other it was found that the median distance materials travelled within a symbiotic relationship is 20.4 miles. It is argued that quantitative information of this form is of practical value for the effective deployment of industrial symbiosis practitioners and wider resource efficiency planning. The results and discussion presented within this article are specific to industrial symbiosis opportunities facilitated within the United Kingdom; the methodology and assessment of resource movement influences are, however, expected to be relevant to all countries in which industrial activity is similarly mature and diversified.

This paper presents an exploratory analysis of microgeneration installer businesses in the UK during a period of intense change in policies supporting microgeneration from 2010 to 2012. The research examines the influence of installer businesses on rates of uptake and standards of installation, and the interplay between business practices and the policy environment. The research developed new detailed datasets through a nationwide survey, to which 388 installers responded, and follow-up interviews with 22 installers. Focusing on solar photovoltaics and air source heat pumps installed in households, the results show the fundamental dependence of installer businesses on government financial incentives and on the quality assurance scheme in operation. Market confidence was compromised by the sharp reduction in the Feed-In Tariff (FIT) for residential solar PV in 2012 and long delays to the equivalent Renewable Heat Incentive for residential installations. Nevertheless, more modest FIT levels have reduced the risk of sub-optimal installations and inappropriate specification of microgeneration systems. The findings underline the need for consistent policy to allow installer businesses and their supply chains to develop and mature, and thus facilitate commercial deployment of microgeneration of high quality, raise its competiveness with incumbent forms of energy supply and contribute to decarbonisation goals.

Over the last few years, load growth, increases in intermittent generation, declining technology costs and increasing recognition of the importance of customer behaviour in energy markets have brought about a change in the focus of Demand Response (DR) in Europe. The long standing programmes involving large industries, through interruptible tariffs and time of day pricing, have been increasingly complemented by programmes aimed at commercial and residential customer groups. Developments in DR vary substantially across Europe reflecting national conditions and triggered by different sets of policies, programmes and implementation schemes. This paper examines experiences within European countries as well as at European Union (EU) level, with the aim of understanding which factors have facilitated or impeded advances in DR. It describes initiatives, studies and policies of various European countries, with in-depth case studies of the UK, Italy and Spain. It is concluded that while business programmes, technical and economic potentials vary across Europe, there are common reasons as to why coordinated DR policies have been slow to emerge. This is because of the limited knowledge on DR energy saving capacities; high cost estimates for DR technologies and infrastructures; and policies focused on creating the conditions for liberalising the EU energy markets. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This volumes consists of 59 peer-reviewed papers, presented at the International Conference on Sustainable Design and Manufacturing (SDM-16) held in Chania, Crete Greece in April 2016. Leading-edge research into sustainable design and manufacturing aims to enable the manufacturing industry to grow by adopting more advanced technologies, and at the same time improve its sustainability by reducing its environmental impact. SDM-16 covers a wide range of topics from sustainable product design and service innovation, sustainable process and technology for the manufacturing of sustainable products, sustainable manufacturing systems and enterprises, decision support for sustainability, and the study of societal impact of sustainability including research for circular economy. Application areas are wide and varied. The book will provide an excellent overview of the latest research and development in the area of Sustainable Design and Manufacturing.

Agro-industries have the potential to catalyse energy access and promote development. Mauritius is one of the most advanced countries in the use of waste from sugar processing (bagasse) to simultaneously generate heat and electricity (cogeneration) to feed into the grid, but developments have evolved over several decades with complex dynamics between different actors. A multi-level perspective is used in this paper to examine this process and to extract policy lessons for other countries. The analysis shows how policies influenced the development of the bagasse cogeneration niche and changes in the sugar and energy regimes over time. The formation of independent power producers, centralisation of sugar mills, the use of a complementary fuel (coal) in the off-crop season, and targeted financial incentives were important for the development of bagasse cogeneration in Mauritius. Mauritian sugar mills are at the forefront of niche technological and organisational innovations in response to recent reduction in sugar prices. The country has been able to respond to changes and manage niche innovations strategically due to the deployment of finance, technical expertise and strong governance structures which enabled the government to coordinate with industry. Therefore, local capacity and institutional context are important for managing transitions towards sustainable energy.

Bioenergy is an important renewable energy source in the UK, but the bioenergy industry and in particular the wood fuel sub sector, is relatively under-developed. Socioeconomic factors have been identified as critical for facilitating deployment levels and sustainable development. However, previous studies have mostly assessed these factors using quantitative methods and models, which are limited in assessing pertinent contextual factors such as institutional/regulatory governance, supply chain structure and governance, capital resource availability as well as actor decisions. As a step further, this research engages with these under-explored aspects of the system by developing a new analytical framework: the Resilience and Livelihoods in Supply Chains (RELISC) framework, which was designed by linking Value Chain Analysis, the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and a supply chain resilience framework. Its application to a UK wood fuel supply chain produced useful insights. For example, the structure of the chain revealed a high level of dependency on a particular end user and contractor. Key institutional governance was critical in sustaining natural resources and providing access to finance. Internal supply chain governance was limited in ensuring the sustainability of resources and lack of actor awareness and interest were also limiting factors. In addition, five capital analyses revealed gaps in skills, networking and physical infrastructure. Finally, the design of the novel RELISC framework enables it to engage with diverse aspects of the system holistically and its application generated practical recommendations and strategies for supply chain resilience and sector growth, which are useful and applicable to other emerging sectors.

Innovation is critical to business. Sustainability is a global challenge requiring innovation. Many organizations have publicly committed to innovate towards environmental, social and economic sustainability, but a behaviour gap remains. In order to promote the effectiveness of these endeavours, there is a pressing need to understand the conditions for successful innovation towards sustainability, backed by empirical evidence. This paper complements prior work by developing a definition of sustainability-oriented innovation (building upon definitions of eco-innovation), and by discussing observations of this activity in practice. The paper presents an account of sustainability-oriented innovation at Interface, a global manufacturing company with radical sustainability goals. It expounds the contexts in which these innovations arose, focusing in particular on Net-Works, a radical, socially-minded fishing-net recycling programme. It was found that several unique factors contributed to success: adopting an existing route to market, partnering with an NGO, and learning from mistakes in a “safe failure space”.

Road transport accounts for 90% of UK transport emissions; by 2027 this is targeted to be reduced by 50% (OLEV, 2011). Electric vehicles offer a substantial opportunity to reduce road emissions, particularly to decarbonise the fleet market due to the sheer number of new registrations for business applications. However the diffusion of electric vehicles requires a transition across a large spectrum of societal and economic dimensions. The relationship between transition pathways and technological lock-in in the transport sector is underresearched, particularly in the field of e-mobility. This paper explores the pathway for electric vehicles, identifying the development blocks and technological lock-in of existing vehicle types, in order to understand the opportunities for technology diffusion within commercial fleet applications. This study takes a small sample of cases to achieve an in depth exploration of the motivations and barriers to this technological change. Three UK commercial-urban fleets in differing sectors are examined to understand their individual contexts and the level of correlation with the challenges experienced by the fleet market as whole, and how these have or have not been overcome. The multi-level perspective was used to determine the dynamics of change for fleets towards electric vehicles, and the roles of different stakeholder types were explored through the ‘action space’ of government, civil society and market logics. It is evident from the cases that an ‘innovator logic’ is competing to unlock EVs through technology innovation that extends beyond the transitional role of hybrids.

Globally, 2.8 billion people still cook with biomass, resulting in health, environmental, and social challenges; electric cooking is a key option for a transition to modern energy cooking services. However, electric cooking is assumed to be too expensive, grids can be unreliable and the connection capacity of mini-grids and solar home systems is widely assumed to be insufficient. Developments in higher performance and lower cost batteries and solar photovoltaics can help, but they raise questions of affordability and environmental impacts. The range of issues is wide, and existing studies do not capture them coherently. A new suite of models is outlined that represents the technical, economic, human, and environmental benefits and impacts of delivering electric cooking services, with a life-cycle perspective. This paper represents the first time this diverse range of approaches has been brought together. The paper illustrates their use through combined application to case studies for transitions of households from traditional fuels to electric cooking: for urban grid-connected households in Zambia; for mini-grid connected households in Tanzania; and for off-grid households in Kenya. The results show that electric cooking can be cost-effective, and they demonstrate overall reductions in human and ecological impacts but point out potential impact 'hotspots'. The network analysis shows that electric cooking can be accommodated to a significant extent on existing grids, due partly to diversity effects in the nature and timing of cooking practices.

Expansion in access to clean cooking in Sub-Saharan Africa remains well below the UN's Sustainable Development Goal objectives. In particular, clean and modern forms of cooking have struggled to attract commercial funding at scale. The use of bioethanol in cooking is not new, but until recently, its application has been confined exclusively to small-scale projects. However, a new bioethanol cooking utility in Kenya has now reached mass-market adoption, serving more than 950,000 households with cooking fuel since its launch in late 2019. Its success was made possible by a significant investment in technology to facilitate safe, convenient, and affordable fuel distribution. It is funded by climate finance, which is based on bioethanol fuel replacing the charcoal normally used for cooking; a leading cause of African deforestation. This development is so recent that it has not been widely discussed in the academic literature. More broadly, the health, environmental, and economic impacts of bioethanol for cooking have not been systematically assembled in one place. The main aim of this study is to identify how KOKO Networks has managed to overcome the traditional barriers to scalability, achieving impacts with bioethanol for accelerating energy transitions for cooking. The results show that bioethanol for cooking supports 13 out of 17 SDGs and has significant positive impacts on health, the environment, and the wider economy. The affordability of bioethanol has been made possible because of KOKO Investments in high-tech electronic fuel dispensing machines and through the use of climate financing. KOKO relies both on local and imported fuel to offer reliability and security of supply, as well as to grow commercial bioethanol demand to support the growth of the local bioethanol industry. Bioethanol for cooking also suffers from unfavorable tax regimes. This is because historically, in many countries, ethanol has been imported for use in the beverage industry. In addition, an appropriate commercial supply chain and delivery model which boosts the scalability of business and offers customer convenience is essential. For these conditions to take place, an enabling policy environment is key.

The decarbonisation of residential heating systems has become increasingly important to meet the global goals of minimising carbon emissions and combating climate change. However, with rising energy costs, this can be a significant challenge for low-income households. This study presents a novel optimisation framework to aid the decarbonisation of residential heating in the United Kingdom by combining technology-related decision-support with policy decisions. The framework can recommend the optimal retrofit of low-carbon heating technologies and fabric improvement measures such as insulation upgrades for improving energy efficiency. Concurrently, the optimal financial contributions towards investment costs from grants supporting low-income households and social housing is determined. It also includes piecewise linearisations to capture the detailed operation of air source heat pumps, which are set to replace natural gas-based heating systems, and assesses the eligibility of each dwelling for grant funding. A large case study consisting of social housing stock in Woking, UK, has been used to test the framework. Three scenarios are used to assess the efficacy of existing technology and policy combinations to meet local emissions reduction targets, which are benchmarked against emissions from existing gas-based heating systems and insulation measures. Results highlight the limitations of existing UK grants, as these can only achieve an emissions reduction of 33.5% without incurring significant additional investment costs to the local council. The lack of support towards installing hot water tanks, which are required for the operation of heat pumps, is another major limitation in existing grants. A proposed scenario, which introduces a fictional grant with unlimited funding, sheds light on the much larger grant contributions expected to achieve an emissions reduction of 66.8%, which surpasses local targets. These results also suggest the need for operational support to cope with much higher energy bills, especially for low-income and/or fuel-poor households, due to the electrification of heating systems. Overall, the framework is a useful tool for local councils, policy makers, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions on the affordable decarbonisation of residential heating systems.

The recent policy discussion in the UK on the economic case for demand response (DR) calls for a reflection on available evidence regarding its costs and benefits. Existing studies tend to consider the size of investments and returns of certain forms of DR in isolation and do not consider economic welfare effects. From review of existing studies, policy documents, and some simple modelling of benefits of DR in providing reserve for unforeseen events, we demonstrate that the economic case for DR in UK electricity markets is positive. Consideration of economic welfare gains is provided. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.

© Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 2011.Introduction: Demand response in domestic contexts may be differentiated into two modes of provision. First, ‘automatic’ load control involves the direct intervention by utilities to manipulate the performance of domestic appliances using heat or power, without the immediate involvement of domestic end-users. This is sometimes referred to as ‘dynamic demand’. For example, in the UK a trial was initiated in December 2009 by a consortium including a fridge manufacturer (Indesit), an energy utility (Npower) and a technology company (RLtec). Three hundred end-users were supplied with ‘dynamic demand fridges and fridge freezers’, free of charge and the trial involved the monitoring of each device as well as the switching off of appliances for short durations in response to grid conditions. A second form of demand response can be described as more ‘intentional’ load control. This involves the direct intervention by domestic end-users themselves, rather than utilities, that would retain total control over the working of domestic appliances and would choose to modify behavioural patterns of energy consumption in response to some form of signal from a utility. This signal is most likely to be a price signal but is not necessarily so – it could involve communicating the availability of energy generated from different kinds of resource (e.g. fossil fuel or renewable) (Devine-Wright, 2003). The signal is most likely to be communicated via a smart metering device, but could alternatively involve a ‘traffic light’ device that signals the availability of energy via colour-coded signals, or a communication to other forms of ICT via text messages or emails (e.g. mobile phones).

Centralised production of essential products and services based on fossil fuels and large scale distribution infrastructures have contributed to a plethora of issues such as deterioration of ecosystems, social-economic injustice and depletion of resources. The establishment of localised production systems can potentially reduce unsustainable resource consumption and bring socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The main objective of this work is to develop engineering tools for the rational design of such systems. Production of products and services is characterised as inter-linked subsystems (e.g. food, energy, water and waste). A sequential design approach is developed to design subsystems in turn, with necessary iterations. The process is illustrated through the co-design of energy, water and food production for a case study locale based on a developing eco-town in the UK. This design approach suggested an integrated system based primarily on locally available resources and allowed greater insight into the drivers and constraints on local resource use.

In the last ten years, electrification in Kenya has proceeded at an astonishing rate. Notwithstanding this feat, household electricity consumption, particularly in rural areas, remains significantly low. Thus, stimulating demand and sustainable consumption are the next critical challenges policymakers face. In this paper, we present a case study of an electrification project that targets workers’ housing inside a commercial tea estate. We use Energy Cultures framework to analyse what motivates and constrains household electricity consumption in rural Kenya. Our findings show that although people give significant consideration to cost, money is not the only determinant. Electricity is desired to the extent that it enables families to carry out socially desirable activities, while service is measured against expectations and aspirations. Although access to the grid influences households’ perceptions of wellbeing, their status as migrant workers has a constraining effect on how they consume electricity. Empowered by technology, households are also increasingly taking charge in shaping their own distinct energy cultures. However, for the most part, this involves finding new ways to reproduce and sustain a way of life that is consistent with their belief systems. Seeing households as embodiments of lifestyles whose energy culture is shaped by their on-going interactions with their physical and social environments, the paper argues for an integrated approach to policy and programmatic interventions.

By ‘working with the willing’, the National Industrial Symbiosis Programme (NISP) has successfully facilitated industrial symbiosis throughout the United Kingdom and, in the process, delivered significant economic and environmental benefits for both Programme members and the country as a whole. One of the keys to NISP's success is that, unlike failed attempts to plan and construct eco-industrial systems from scratch, the Programme works largely with existing companies who have already settled in, developed, and successfully operate within a given locale. This article argues that existing and mature industrial systems provide the best prospects for identifying opportunities for, and ultimately facilitating, industrial symbiosis. Due to levels of diversification and operational fundamental niches that, in the fullness of time, develop within all industrial systems, industrially mature areas are deemed to be industrial symbiosis ‘conducive environments’. Building on the conservation biology concept of a habitat suitability index, the article presents a methodology for comparing a potential site for eco-industrial development to a known baseline industrial ‘habitat’ already identified as being highly conducive to industrial symbiosis. The suitability index methodology is further developed and applied to a multi-criteria evaluation geographic information system to produce a ‘habitat’ suitability map that allows practitioners to quickly identify potential industrial symbiosis hotspots (the methodology is illustrated for England). The article concludes by providing options for the development of symbiosis suitability indices and how they can be used to support the facilitation of industrial symbiosis and regional resource efficiency.

This paper is a review of research undertaken, and subsequent policy change enacted, in the years 2018 to 2022 regarding the integration of cooking loads and needs into modern energy planning. Building on an earlier paper which described how the dominant global approaches to tackling the enduring problem of biomass-fuelled cooking was failing, and how a new UK Aid programme (Oct 2018) would be seeking to intentionally change international energy policy towards cooking and enable a significant transition in energy use, in this paper we review whether this strategy is being adopted by researchers, governments, and the private sector across the world and whether it is likely to make a significant contribution to the fulfilment of Sustainable Development Goal 7. In particular, the call is for integrated planning of modern energy inclusive of cooking loads-the potential 'Mutual Support' that both can lend to each other. The review considers the international commitments made by donors and governments to this end, the research that positions the use of modern energy as a cost-effective proposition, the urbanisation and societal changes reinforcing such planning, and positions the review in the light of climate change and the need to reach net zero carbon by 2050.

Globally, 2.6 billion people still cook with biomass, resulting in interlinked health, environmental and drudgery challenges. The uptake of improved biomass cookstoves has barely kept up with population growth, yet SDG7 hopes for universal access to modern energy by 2030. This paper explores a potentially transformative new approach to facilitate access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for cooking by leveraging rapid progress in electrification and falling prices of solar PV and lithium-ion batteries: battery-supported electric cooking. This paper presents empirical evidence on energy use, menu choices and cooking preferences from 83 households in 4 countries who transitioned from other fuels to electric cooking. A techno-economic model demonstrates that battery-supported electric cooking can be cost competitive with current expenditures on cooking fuels. No significant change in household menus occurred and the energy-efficient devices enabled 100% of everyday cooking with just 0.87–2.06 kWh/household/day. Our initial findings have already directly influenced the development of a 5-year UKAid-funded programme in collaboration with the World Bank, ‘Modern Energy Cooking Services’, and the new draft energy policy in Uganda. The paper concludes with two key policy recommendations: design lifeline tariffs inclusive of cooking and develop local markets for culturally-appropriate, quality-assured, energy-efficient cooking appliances. •Energy-efficient eCooking appliances are attractive to many households in LMICs.•In LMICs, on-grid eCooking with efficient appliances is often cheaper than purchasing cooking fuels.•Battery storage can mitigate concerns about peak loads and grid availability.•Energy-efficient appliances enable cost-competitive battery-eCooking systems.•Clean cooking can be enabled by policies leveraging rapid progress in electrification.

Ongoing reductions in the costs of solar PV and battery technologies have contributed to an increased use of home energy systems in Sub-Saharan African regions without grid access. However, such systems can normally support only low-power end uses, and there has been little research regarding the impact on households unable to transition to higher-wattage energy services in the continued absence of the grid. This paper examines the challenges facing rural energy transitions and whether households feel they are energy 'locked in'. A mixed-methods approach using questionnaire-based household energy surveys of rural solar home system (SHS) users was used to collect qualitative and quantitative data. Thematic analysis and a mixture of descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were applied. The results showed that a significant number of households possessed appliances that could not be powered by their SHS and were willing to spend large sums to connect were a higher-capacity option available. This implied that a significant number of the households were locked into a low-energy future. Swarm electrification technology and energy efficient, DC-powered plug-and-play appliances were suggested as means to move the households to higher tiers of electricity access.

The study presents a proposed approach towards developing the core engine for a simplified Rapid Overheating ASSessment Tool (ROASST), which is intended to help assist early-stage analysis of the risks of indoor overheating for apartments located in Greater London. Using a discrete number of plan forms selected from case studies, a virtual risk database was populated with the results of a large number of parametric dynamic thermal simulations based on the EnergyPlus calculation engine and including aspects such as location within Greater London, orientation, fenestration size and natural ventilation, which are associated with known overheating risk factors. Alternative statistical meta-models were developed with both explanatory and predictive purposes, correlating the simulation input with the overheating risk predictions expressed according to multiple metrics. Results from multiple linear regression analysis show that while all factors considered are relevant towards determining the propensity to overheating, window opening and natural ventilation capacity are by far the strongest predictors among those considered. The implementation of machine learning algorithms is shown to improve the accuracy of the meta-model, producing very high coefficients of determination (R2) and lower prediction errors (RMSE). The development of a meta-model demonstrates the ability of returning accurate predictions with limited input, albeit with significant limitations. Possibilities of further improvements to the tool are briefly outlined, including the coupling with a User Interface for applicability in a design environment for early-stage design advice.

This study presents the findings of applying a Discrete Demand Side Control (DDSC) approach to the space heating of two case study buildings. High and low tolerance scenarios are implemented on the space heating controller to assess the impact of DDSC upon buildings with different thermal capacitances, light-weight and heavy-weight construction. Space heating is provided by an electric heat pump powered from a wind turbine, with a back-up electrical network connection in the event of insufficient wind being available when a demand occurs. Findings highlight that thermal comfort is maintained within an acceptable range while the DDSC controller maintains the demand/supply balance. Whilst it is noted that energy demand increases slightly, as this is mostly supplied from the wind turbine, this is of little significance and hence a reduction in operating costs and carbon emissions is still attained.

In recent years, concerns have grown about global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and the potential for dangerous climate change which is associated with business-as-usual emissions from coal-fired power plants (and other large sources of CO2). Thus, it is increasingly being suggested that CO2 capture will be a requirement for continued use of coal for electricity generation in coming decades. For example, within Europe, it has been proposed that CO2 capture could be mandatory for all new coal-fired power plants from 2020 (Commission of the European Communities, 2007). A number of site-specific considerations can be expected to shape technology choice and other decisions related to investments in new coal-fired power plant. These include restrictions in the coal available at reasonable cost, local environmental legislation and the electricity market that the plant would operate in. This paper outlines some considerations for investors, utilities and possibly regulators when identifying sites and making technology choices for new coal-fired plants which are expected to use CO2 capture, either from the outset or following later retrofit (i.e. the initial plant would be capture-ready). It identifies some extra factors in selecting appropriate sites, when compared to plants built without CO2 capture considerations, and outlines some potential 'show-stoppers'. For example, CO2 capture plants must be sited in locations which allow CO 2 to be transported to safe geological storage (or other use). These new factors must ultimately feed into investment decisions. An initial discussion of approaches which could be used by investors and other stakeholders to compare specific technology options is included here. It is important that methods that allow investors and legislators to make informed choices, taking into account site-specific factors which are often neglected in general comparisons of technology, are identified and developed. The qualitative discussion in this paper is intended to inform the quantitative analyses that will be used by project developers in the next few years to select power plant technology options for capture-ready plants and for plants built from the outset with full-scale CO2 capture as part of integrated carbon capture and storage schemes.

The orthodox approach for incentivizing Demand Side Participation (DSP) programs is that utility losses from capital, installation and planning costs should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms which aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives to implement DSP activities. The recent national smart metering roll-out in the UK implies that this approach needs to be re-assessed since utilities will recover the capital costs associated with DSP technology through bills. This paper introduces a reward and penalty mechanism focusing on residential users. DSP planning costs are recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to peak signals. Those consumers who do react are rewarded by paying lower bills. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) for individual users, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines benchmarks which are matched against responses to signals and caps the level of rewards/penalties to avoid market distortions. The paper presents an overview of existing financial incentive mechanisms for DSP; introduces the reward/penalty mechanism aimed at fostering DSP under the hypothesis of smart metering roll-out; considers the costs faced by utilities for DSP programs; assesses linear rate effects and value changes; introduces compensatory weights for those consumers who have physical or financial impediments; and shows findings based on simulation runs on three discrete levels of elasticity. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Residential heating displays huge decarbonisation potential towards Net-Zero. The complexity of heating system and socio-economic system appeals for a systematic design to avoid exacerbating fuel poverty. This study develops a three-layer heat-for-all model which integrates building stocks analysis, distributed heating system optimisation, economic and environmental impacts simulation to tackle heating decarbonisation and fuel poverty simultaneously. This whole system model is a powerful decision support tool that can help conceive heating decarbonisation strategies for wider regions and countries. More than 400,000 scenarios are created, considering the effects of future policy schemes (No Grant, Business as Usual, Proposed), minimum emission reduction target, carbon intensity of grid, future natural gas, and electricity prices. Results show that optimised heating system decarbonisation plan heavily relies on future energy prices. In the case study, only air source heat pumps are chosen when electricity price is lower than 3 times gas price. Secondly, investment in heating system could stimulate the greenhouse gas emission of whole supply chain, hedging the emission reduction achieved in heating system. This further reveals that life cycle thinking is imperative in GHG emission mitigation. Thirdly, electricity decarbonisation plays a vital role in achieving whole system emission reduction. The grid carbon intensity reduction makes substantial contribution to the emission reduction of heating system and industry system. In tackling fuel poverty, it's worth noticing that the fuel poverty is aggravated with more grant support under certain scenarios, since current policy schemes focus on capital investment in heating system but overlook the increased energy bills. It appeals for a more comprehensive policy design considering all stakeholders. [Display omitted] •A three-layer whole system approach to tackle heating decarbonisation and fuel poverty.•Optimised heating system decarbonisation plan heavily relies on future energy prices.•Investment in heating system stimulates the greenhouse gas emissions of whole supply chain.•Electricity decarbonisation plays a pivotal role in whole system emission reduction.•Fuel poverty will be exacerbated without better policy design.

This paper proposes a new differential evolution (DE) algorithm for unconstrained continuous optimisation problems, termed (Formula presented.)JADE, that uses a small or ‘micro’ ((Formula presented.)) population. The main contribution of the proposed DE is a new mutation operator, ‘current-by-rand-to-pbest.’ With a population size less than 10, (Formula presented.)JADE is able to solve some classical multimodal benchmark problems of 30 and 100 dimensions as reliably as some state-of-the-art DE algorithms using conventionally sized populations. The algorithm also compares favourably to other small population DE variants and classical DE.

© 2010 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved.Significant coal reserves are reported in many countries including USA, China, Australia and India and it is often suggested that the use of this coal could play an important role in global energy security until the end of the century and beyond. But at the same time, concerns over the potential for dangerous climate change to be caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from many human activities, including power generation using coal, has led to global efforts to identify technologies that can reduce CO2 emissions. For coal-fired power plants, it is likely that successful development and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies will be the only way that their continued operation will be allowed, in order to avoid unacceptable environmental impacts. This chapter reviews the key carbon capture technologies closest to commercial deployment at coal-fired power plants. It identifies similarities and differences between options that should be taken into account when investment decisions are made, with a particular focus on operating characteristics. It is very likely that regulation, including on acceptable CO2 emissions, will play a critical role in determining the landscape for power plant investment, so a discussion of some key regulatory issues in determining if, when and where CCS is introduced is also included.

Re-distributed manufacturing (RDM) is of high economic and political interest and is associated with rapid technological, environmental, political, regulatory and social changes in the UK. RDM of food raises opportunities and questions around the local nexus of food, energy and water. Considering these together can provide opportunities for rationalising resource utilisation, production, and consumption while contributing to shared prosperity between business, society and natural ecosystems. This paper concentrates on the energy–food aspects of the nexus for RDM by focusing on the case study of bread manufacturing and transportation in the UK. A detailed analysis of the energy requirements and environmental impacts of centralised bread production and transportation compared with localised options for re-distributed bread manufacturing is undertaken. This is achieved by building on existing literature and developing a series of bread-energy system configurations to model energy usage and green-house gas (GHG) emissions at the large (centralised), medium and small scales. Results from the analysis indicate that energy use and emissions can in some instances increase as a result of losing economies of scale through downscaling bread manufacturing. However, the analysis shows that overall energy use and emissions along the bread supply chain are dominated by transportation stages. Thus, RDM opens up new opportunities for reductions in overall energy consumption and emissions, for example by using low carbon vehicles for the transportation of bread and flour at the medium and small scales. Major energy use and emission reductions could also be achieved by reducing car usage if more consumers buy in local bakeries. The configurations also consider energy use for various bread wastage conditions. Assuming that buying more frequently in local bakeries only the bread that is consumed helps avoiding bread wastage, this would lead to reduced bread purchasing and bread manufacturing, which translates to reductions in energy use and emissions in the modelled configurations. Existing data demonstrate that there is a wide diversity across different manufacturing sites in the energy use and associated emissions per loaf of bread produced. The study highlights the opportunities for improvement in the sector if plant move towards the best available manufacturing technologies and practices, and this may be more practical for smaller scale operations. Two hypothetical bread production scenarios show that a greater share of the UK’s bread being produced locally could result in a reduction in overall energy consumption and emissions.

This paper considers methodological questions concerning indicators of sustainability, which have arisen in the course of an EPSRC-supported project investigating a systems approach to assessing the sustainability of cities. The project aimed: (a) to develop a methodology, the Reference Sustainability System (RSS), for representing the energy, resource and material flows, on which the environmental sustainability of cities depends; (b) to show how this methodology could contribute to a more systematic assessment of the potential of technological and resource management strategies to enhance urban sustainability. Systems models of the material or resource flows caused by the household demand for paper, energy, water and bottled water have been constructed. The project has highlighted the complexity of assessing the contributions of specific technologies and strategies to enhanced sustainability. Particular issues raised include the relative merits and problems of using externality valuation methods compared to physical indicators, the difficulties of aggregating environmental impacts, the question of where system boundaries should be drawn in a life cycle analysis, and the need to consider both distant and local impacts which arise from the end-use demands of urban populations. The paper explores these issues, through the use of modelling results from the case studies. Particular emphasis is placed on the communication of research results to policy makers, interested organisations and the public, drawing on recent experience with the dissemination of results from the project's first case study relating to waste-paper management options.

A systems approach is used to model the urban water and wastewater system. Scenarios are developed for the implementation of a range of water demand management measures, including (a) leakage reduction, (b) the increasing use of water metering, (c) the replacement of standard WCs by low-flow WCs, and (d) the introduction of greywater recycling systems. These measures are assessed according to the water saving, cost per unit of water saved, and other indicators of the relative contribution to the sustainability of the system. Preliminary assessments of selected environmental costs and benefits are also included.

The United Kingdom has placed itself on a transition towards a low-carbon economy and society, through the imposition of a legally-binding goal aimed at reducing its ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions by 80% by 2050 against a 1990 baseline. A set of three low-carbon, socio-technical transition pathways were developed and analysed via an innovative collaboration between engineers, social scientists and policy analysts. The pathways focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing use of low-carbon electricity for heating and transport, within the context of critical European Union developments and policies. Their development started from narrative storylines regarding different governance framings, drawing on interviews and workshops with stakeholders and analysis of historical analogies. The quantified UK pathways were named Market Rules, Central Co-ordination and Thousand Flowers; each reflecting a dominant logic of governance arrangements. The aim of the present contribution was to use these pathways to explore what is needed to realise a transition that successfully addresses the so-called energy policy ‘trilemma,’ i.e. the simultaneous delivery of low carbon, secure and affordable energy services. Analytical tools were developed and applied to assess the technical feasibility, social acceptability, and environmental and economic impacts of the pathways. Technological and behavioural developments were examined, alongside appropriate governance structures and regulations for these low-carbon transition pathways, as well as the roles of key energy system ‘actors’ (both large and small). An assessment of the part that could possibly be played by future demand side response was also undertaken in order to understand the factors that drive energy demand and energy-using behaviour, and reflecting growing interest in demand side response for balancing a system with high proportions of renewable generation. A set of interacting and complementary engineering and techno-economic models or tools were then employed to analyse electricity network infrastructure investment and operational decisions to assist market design and option evaluation. This provided a basis for integrating the analysis within a whole systems framework of electricity system development, together with the evaluation of future economic benefits, costs and uncertainties. Finally, the energy and environmental performance of the different energy mixes were appraised on a ‘life-cycle’ basis to determine the greenhouse gas emissions and other ecological or health burdens associated with each of the three transition pathways. Here, the challenges, insights and opportunities that have been identified over the transition towards a low-carbon future in the United Kingdom are described with the purpose of providing a valuable evidence base for developers, policy makers and other stakeholders.

Low carbon energy supply technologies are increasingly used at the building and community scale and are an important part of the government decarbonisation strategy. However, with their present state of development and costs, many of these decentralised technologies rely on public subsidies to be financially viable. It is questionable whether they are cost effective compared to other ways of reducing carbon emissions, such as decarbonisation of conventional supply and improving the energy efficiency of dwellings. Previous studies have found it difficult to reliably estimate the future potential of decentralised supply because this depends on the available residential space which varies greatly within a city region. To address this problem, we used an integrated modelling framework that converted the residential density forecasts of a regional model into a representation of the building dimensions and land of the future housing stock. This included a method of estimating the variability of the dwellings and residential land. We present the findings of a case study of the wider south east regions of England that forecasted the impacts of energy efficiency and decentralised supply scenarios to year 2031. Our novel and innovative method substantially improves the spatial estimates of energy consumption compared to building energy models that only use standard dwelling typologies. We tested the impact of an alternative spatial planning policy on the future potential of decentralised energy supply and showed how lower density development would be more suitable for ground source heat pumps. Our findings are important because this method would help to improve the evidence base for strategies on achieving carbon budgets by taking into account how future residential space constraints would affect the suitability and uptakes of these technologies.

The selection of sustainable indicators is crucial in measuring and understanding the required targets within the theme of sustainability for an energy system. This is because sustainability, as a term, is used in several fields and covers a variety of indicators based on the problem’s context and identity. Each researcher looks at sustainability from their own perspective and selects the indicators which align best with their objectives and their understanding of the topic. This paper aims to implement a systematic approach to choosing the sustainable indicators for Bahrain’s electrical production with renewables. The proposed framework analyses the frequency of indicators in a sample of 73 studies and screens them in accordance with the selection principles and experts’ views. The results reveal 15 indicators with strong relevance to sustainable growth for the power sector with renewables. These indicators are classified as either qualitative or quantitative, depending on our case study’s context and the appropriate practice according to the literature. Finally, each of the selected indicators was defined to reflect its intended purpose in our study, since the common practice within the present literature is to provide such indicators without explaining their actual purpose.

This study evaluates the impact of decentralisation on the reliability of electricity networks, particularly under stressed conditions. By applying four strategies to add decentralised generators to the grid, the impact on network reliability has been assessed, where the blackout impact has been defined as the product of the relative blackout size and the relative blackout frequency. The general approach taken to decentralise the network is to replace the aggregated generation capacity at an existing node with three new nodes representing the total generation capacity of multiple decentralised generators. Two different networks have been used: a reduced and aggregated version of the electricity network of Great Britain (GB) and the IEEE 39 network, and each of them has been assessed for decentralisation based on conventional energy sources and for decentralisation based on intermittent renewable energy sources. The results suggest that adding significant amounts of DGs, especially if it is intermittent, can seriously reduce network reliability; however, various approaches regarding the decentralisation strategy and management of the resulting network can mitigate the negative effects.

At the local scale, interconnected production, consumption, waste management, and other man-made technological components interact with local ecosystem components to form a local production system. The purpose of this work is to develop a framework for the conceptual characterization and mathematical modeling of a local production system to support the assessment of process and component options that potentially create symbiosis between industry and ecosystem. This framework has been applied to a case study to assess options for the establishment of a local energy production system that involves a heathland ecosystem, bioenergy production, and wastewater treatment. We found that the framework is useful to analyze the two-way interactions between these components in order to obtain insight into the behavior and performance of the bioenergy production system. In particular, the framework enables exploring the levels of the ecosystem states that allow continuous provisioning of resources in order to establish a sustainable techno-ecological system.

The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus concept highlights the importance of integrative solutions that secure resource supplies and meet demands sustainably. There is a need for translating the nexus concept into clear frameworks and tools that can be applied to decision making. A simulation and analytics framework, and a concomitant Nexus Simulation System (NexSym) is presented here. NexSym advances the state-of-the-art in nexus tools by explicit dynamic modelling of local techno-ecological interactions relevant to WEF operations. The modular tool integrates models for ecosystems, WEF production and consumption components and allows the user to build, simulate and analyse a “flowsheet” of a local system. This enables elucidation of critical interactions and gaining knowledge and understanding that supports innovative solutions by balancing resource supply and demand and increasing synergies between components, while maintaining ecosystems. NexSym allowed assessment of the synergistic design of a local nexus system in a UK eco-town. The design improved local nutrient balance and meets 100% of electricity demand, while achieving higher carbon capture and biomass provisioning, higher water reuse and food production, however with a remarkable impact on land use.

Energy system transition research has been experimenting with the integration of qualitative and quantitative analysis due to the increased articulation it provides. Current approaches tend to be heavily biased by qualitative or quantitative methodologies, and more often are aimed toward a single academic discipline. This paper proposes an interdisciplinary methodology for the elaboration of energy system socio-technical scenarios, applied here to the low carbon transition of the UK. An iterative approach was used to produce quantitative descriptions of the UK's energy transition out to 2050, building on qualitative storylines or narratives that had been developed through the formal application of a transition pathways approach. The combination of the qualitative and quantitative analysis in this way subsequently formed the cornerstone of wider interdisciplinary research, helping to harmonise assumptions, and facilitating ‘whole systems’ thinking. The methodology pulls on niche expertise of contributors to map and investigate the governance and technological landscape of a system change. Initial inconsistencies were found between energy supply and demand and addressed, the treatment of gas generation, capacity factors, total installed generating capacity and installation rates of renewables employed. Knowledge gaps relating to the operation of combined heat and power, sources of waste heat and future fuel sources were also investigated. Adopting the methodological approach to integrate qualitative and quantitative analysis resulted in a far more comprehensive elaboration than previously, providing a stronger basis for wider research, and for deducing more robust insights for decision-making. It is asserted that this formal process helps build robust future scenarios not only for socio political storylines but also for the quantification of any qualitative storyline.